In the second edition of Scout Angles, Greg Hunter and Luke Smailes shift their focus to the baseball diamond and evaluate the ABCA’s 2021 all-American selections for Division 1.

Greg and Luke both picked snubs from the ABCA’s nominees and provided their final all-American first teams. They addressed each snub’s candidacy while also commenting on each other’s picks. While the ABCA posted a roster of 22 players, the Scout Angles guys each picked one player from each position with an extra outfielder, a DH and a utility player. On the pitching side, both Luke and Greg each picked a five-man starting rotation and two relievers.

The Snubs

  1. Landon Sims (Mississippi State) (Greg)

Greg:

Hard to believe that no pitcher from the National Champion MSU Bulldogs ends up on the ABCA all-American 1st team. You can say Sims’ workload in the SEC is a little light with 14 appearances and 28.2 IP compared to Kevin Kopps (first team lock with his 20 games, 56.2 SEC IP at Arkansas), but Sims’ .153 BAA and 15.1 K/9 were better than Kopps’ .155 and 13.8 respectively.  His performance in the World Series (3 saves and a win) left no doubt in my mind that Sims was shortchanged by the ABCA. I am pretty sure Luke will agree with me on Sims, however, I am guessing he will throw out his impressive FIP (best in nation) for what it’s worth.

Luke:

You know me well, Greg. While only pitching 56.1 innings in relief for the national champions, Sims had the nation’s best FIP (2.26) by 40 points. His 39.4% K-BB% was the best in the nation by 4.7%. He struck out 46.3% of batters and was one of four to strike out more than 40% of batters faced. No, these are not typos. This kind of dominance supersedes the limited workload.

  1. Jackson Glenn (Dallas Baptist) (Luke)

Luke:

Glenn tied Notre Dame’s Kavadas for the second most homers in D1 baseball in 2021, and he did so while holding down a middle infield spot for Dallas Baptist. He was also an extremely disciplined hitter with a 0.7% K-BB% which was in the 88th percentile of all hitters. Glenn vs. East Carolina’s Connor Norby for the second base slot was the debate of this whole process for me. They’re pretty much neck and neck in terms of wOBA and wRAA. Glenn out-slugged Norby and also had the OPS advantage despite Norby having the advantages in batting average (51 points) and on base percentage (47 points). Glenn’s .372 ISO (15th best nation-wide) bested Norby by almost 100 points. 

It seems like the tiebreaker here went to the higher batting average for the ABCA, but Norby had much better ball in play “luck” than Glenn, as Norby’s .437 BABIP was in the 97th percentile in D1 baseball while Glenn was closer to league average at .349. Norby also had the stolen base advantage with 18, but was also caught four times. Glenn was a perfect 13 for 13 in stolen base attempts which is important for me due to the significant marginal impact of a caught stealing in terms of runs scored. 

Greg:

I have gone back and forth on the Jackson Glenn / Connor Norby debate as well. The fact that the ABCA named Glenn to the second team as a third baseman is a bit of a head scratcher. (Glenn played 2 games at 3B according to Baseball Reference.) Here is what I am looking at: similar PAs, Norby’s batting average is elite at .415 and number one in the nation for players with 200+ PAs. Glenn is #43 in that subset at .364. The OPS, RBI and Runs scored are all almost identical. Glenn was tied for 3rd in the nation with 22 HR and Norby was #44 with 15. Norby stole five more bags but was caught four times. The BB- and K-rates are also almost identical as well. On defense, Norby’s fielding percentage was .964 with Glenn at .960. Both of their teams made it to the super regionals which is a big accomplishment for a mid-major. I think I am going to stick with Norby, but it is close.  

  1. Jared Dupere (Northeastern) (Greg)

Greg:

I was a little underwhelmed by the overall production of the 1st team outfield list, so I have several snubs on my list. Dupere played right field for Northeastern, and his bat and power profiles were there (1.238 OPS ranks fifth, .438 ISO ranks fourth, and 21 HR’s ranks fifth in the nation for hitters with a minimum of 200 PA’s.) His 14 SB also add value. Northeastern dominated the CAA Conference with a 20-3 record and then went on to win the conference tourney. Dupere’s production was a big part of that. They then went on to lose two quick games in the Fayetteville Regional. Dupere’s 23.7 K% isn’t ideal for an MLB prospect, and that is probably why he slid to the 13th round for the Giants in this year’s draft. However, MLB draft status should have no bearing on all-American honors, and Dupere’s top-line power production at Northeastern this past spring warrants 1st team status.

Luke:

Comparing to Zavala, Tanner Allen and Donta Williams, Dupere was on the low end of PAs, but still put up 35 wRAA (tenth best), .571 wOBA (ninth best), 21 homers (tied for third most) and he added 14 stolen bases (with only one caught stealing) to boot. A 23.7% K-rate isn’t ideal compared to others being considered here (it makes Crews’ 15.3% in the SEC look even more impressive), but his all-around production is undeniable. He had the highest slugging percentage (.781) of any player with at least 200 PAs. He was truly my final cut for outfielders. I liked Crews just a little more.

  1. Chris Meyers (Toledo) (Luke)

Luke:

Meyers had the third best wRAA, sixth best wOBA,  and a top-15 OBP (.509) in D1 baseball. He also added 10 steals and appeared on the mound. He had a better K-BB% than the actual ABCA first team first base nominee, Will Frizzell, with an even bigger difference between the other nominee, Tyler Hardman. Meyers also had a four-run wRAA advantage over Hardman and an eight-run wRAA advantage over Frizzell.

Greg:

Meyers got third team love from ABCA and is deserving. He has the highest OPS of and first baseman and his batting average is significantly higher than both Doersching and Kavadas. The problem I have with Meyers being the first team first baseman is his second-tier power production. I like power and RBIs at the corners, and Kavadas clearly wins that race with more HR, RBI and a higher ISO in 10 less PA. He also did so in the ACC.  

  1. Zach Neto (Campbell) (Greg)

Greg:

Versatility should be a key component for a utility nomination, and Neto clearly demonstrated that during the 2021 college season, playing 12 games at 1B, nine at 2B, four at 3B, 16 at SS and pitching in 11. If Neto doesn’t have utility written all over him, I don’t know who does. However, versatility isn’t the only asset he possessed; his bat was a real weapon as well, hitting .405 with a 1.208 OPS. This ranked fourth and sixth respectively for hitters with more than 200 PAs. He also scored 50 runs, hit 12 HR’s, drove in 58 runs and stole 12 bags. This is a very solid stat line to go along with his premier average and OPS numbers. Neto’s pitching numbers were less impressive but adequate enough with 21 IP, 15 hits and a 4-0 record with a 3.86 ERA. All said, Neto clearly wins 1st team utility role as he not only defines utility, but he was one of the nation’s top offensive contributors.

Luke:

I didn’t even realize Neto played all over the diamond like he did. That is impressive, and I held him only up against the other infielders within D1. Because of that, I had Sweeney, Glenn, and Locklear among others ahead of Neto when looking strictly at offensive production. Neto still deserves a lot of credit for an incredible season in helping the Camels to a 37-win season that saw them battle Mississippi State to the game’s final pitch in the Starkville Regional. I distinctively remember watching this great battle with Landon Sims to end that game.

  1. Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State) (Luke)

Luke:

Cowser had the division’s 6th highest wRAA and a better wOBA than all outfield nominees except for Quincy Hamilton. He only had a 12.6% K-rate with a 98th percentile K-BB% (-4%). Cowser bested Vandy’s Bradfield Jr.’s in wRAA by a massive 23 runs. Bradfield Jr., while have a great season for the nation’s runner-up, had a stolen base total that was given too much merit. Cowser was by far the better offensive player.

Greg:

I also have Cowser on my first team. He played centerfield, hit .374, had third highest OPS of any outfielder. He also scored 61 Runs, hit 15 bombs, drove in 50 runs and stole 17 bags. Easily the top two or three producers in the outfield last season. He is a lock for me and it is not even close.  

  1. Jack Rogers (Sam Houston State) (Greg)

Greg:

Rogers may have gotten overlooked simply because he played 27 games at first to go along with his 30 games in the outfield (which is enough to qualify as a outfielder for me.)  Rogers was not on any of the first, second or third teams by the ABCA, and this is a clear oversight. His 1.166 OPS was the fourth highest for an outfielder with a minimum of 200 PA’s, and his 53 RBIs is second to only first-team-lock Quincy Hamilton (of the top-ten OPS outfielders). His 16 HR and 12 SB give him a solid set of complementary numbers to round off his overall production, and this put him at the top of the nation’s LF list as far as production goes.

Luke:

I admit that I may have overlooked Jack Rogers simply because he was playing along side Colton Cowser at Sam Houston State. For me, Rogers is another player that put together a fantastic offensive season but gets beat out in the end with limited slots. I wouldn’t have him over any of Hamilton, Cowser, Crews, Zavala or even Dupere. Greg will certainly give more attention to any player’s RBI total where I tend to treat those largely as products of opportunity. 

  1. Griffin Doersching (Northern Kentucky) (Luke)

Luke:

Doersching just had a massive offensive season for Northern Kentucky. He had the division’s fourth highest wRAA (38.7), the fourth highest ISO, 20 HR, the second highest walk rate (23.7%), and a top-15 K-BB%. Doersching also boasted the third highest wOBA, again better than Frizzell and Hardman across the board, but judges seemingly opted for the higher batting averages and strength of schedule. Doersching only had 211 PA because he didn’t have the luxury of a postseason, yet he still put up a massive wRAA total.

Greg:

Doersching got no love from the ABCA, and it is too bad because he did have a deserving year with the bat. His average is ordinary like Luke mentions, but the power is there and the K:BB ratio is very solid. He definitely deserves consideration, but I had Kavadas edging him out due to Kavadas having more RBI, HR and a higher ISO number while playing in the ACC. Kavadas, like Doersching, didn’t hit for as high of a batting average as you would like to see from an all-American, but the power production is at the top for the position. In my mind, Kavadas edges out Doersching for the first team because of it. 

Doersching, along with Hamilton and Sweeney, pretty much separated themselves from the pack in terms of massive OPS totals combined with favorable strikeout to walk ratios.

  1. Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame) (Greg)

Greg:

Other publications list Kavadas as a first teamer, however the ABCA did not. I would expect a first base all-American to be at least somewhat of a slugger, and Kavadas is that and them some. The batting average is pretty pedestrian at .302 and the K% of 25% gives me concerns for how the production will translate to pro ball, but this is not pro ball, nor is it what should be factored in when making this list. Kavadas’ 22 HR is third in the country and only one homer shy of the leader at 23. Still, he had the most of any first baseman in the nation. His 63 RBI is a solid production number, and his 1.240 OPS is fourth overall for hitters with a minimum of 200 plate appearances. He deserves definite consideration for the first team, and the ABCA not having him on any of their three All American teams is a mistake. 

Luke:

Kavadas mashed for Notre Dame, slugging .767 and hitting 22 homers (tied for second in the nation). He struck out in a quarter of his PAs which made me pause for a minute and is one of the reasons he was left off for me. However, when you walk 22.7% of the time to create a 2.3% K-BB%, that’s not necessarily a nomination-killer for me. His wRAA was the 11th highest in the country. His ISO was the third highest in the country, but the two that bested him failed to accrue 150 PAs (Shrum and Ibarra). Kavadas was able to do it over a full season in the ACC — that is impressive. In the end, I believe both Meyers’ and Doersching’s production outputs were simply too gaudy to leave off the first team.

  1. Dylan Crews (LSU) (Luke)

Luke:

Crews’ 35 wRAA was better than Aaron Zavala (narrowly), Tanner Allen and Donta Williams, the outfielders that the ABCA nominated ahead of Crews. He had a 1.7% K-BB in the SEC and that alone is impressive. Add in 18 bombs and 12 steals and I think we are talking about a first teamer here. Crews had the ninth best wRAA and also endured the gauntlet that is the SEC each week. The last outfield spot was very close for me, but Crews narrowly beat out Northeastern’s Jared Dupere. Both were neck and neck in terms of wOBA and wRAA, but Crews had the better K-BB% and strength of schedule advantage.

Greg:

In my opinion, this guy has a chance to be a real monster in the years to come. His 2021 season was very solid, and the lion share of the production came in the SEC, which obviously is no joke. His OPS was only 63rd in the country, and because of that, I like him where the ABCA has him and that is on the third team.

Here’s some pretty impressive evidence of what Crews did to the baseball this past season.

  1. Nicholas Sinacola (Maine) (Luke)

Luke:

Sinacola’s 2.66 FIP was the second best in D1 baseball behind only Landon Sims. His .382 BABIP worked against him as his defense was unable to convert as many of his balls in play into outs compared to the average pitcher. However, he did a pretty good job of limiting those opportunities by striking out 41% of batters faced, the third most in the nation. He had a nice 79-inning workload for a team that lost early in its conference tournament. While I’m not crazy about leaving Kumar Rocker off my final list, Sinacola was better than both Kumar Rocker and Brendan Beck for me when you really break down the numbers despite a much weaker strength of schedule.

Greg:

I had a pretty strong feeling that you were going to go for Sinacola, and I gave him pretty strong consideration as well. Leaving him off all three all-American teams is another major oversight by the ABCA. My issue with putting him on the first team is the fact that the batters he faced in the America East Conference didn’t seem too imposing. His 43% K-rate in 66 conference innings is legit, however the 13 IP outside of  conference weren’t quite as dominant. Matt Mikulski from Fordham wiped out hitters in and out of conference play at a more consistent rate, and his flawless 9-0 record to go with a 1.45 ERA and his 44.4% K rate out-does Sinacola’s 9-3 record, 2.05 ERA and 41% K-rate. I can only have one “untested” pitcher on my 1st team; for me that would be Mikulski. 

  1. Paul Skenes (Air Force) (Luke)

Luke:

Skenes was in the top-30 of wRAA and added 11 saves with a .208 batting average against. He hit .410 as a Freshman, albeit with an unsustainable .493 BABIP (5th highest in D1 baseball), but any time you hit .400, you’re running into at least a little BABIP-luck. Nonetheless, as Skenes gains more experience, he should continue to be an impact player both at the plate and on the mound. 

Greg:

Luke, I’d call Skenes a hit collector. Some guys just have the “hit” gene embedded in their DNA.  Skenes seems to be one of those guys, but you’re probably right about the fact that the BABIP will settle in a little bit. Nevertheless, despite Skenes swinging the magic wand, I still see Neto’s production being superior as he out-did him in almost every other offensive category and his .405 average was only five points off of Skenes .410. Neto had a higher OPS, more R, HR, RBI and SB. Neto also played more positions and more important positions (SS/2B) in the infield at that. On the pitching side, Skenes ERA was better, but Neto’s W/L and WHIP are more impressive. All told, I’m sticking with my man Zach Neto.

Luke’s Full First Team

  • SP – Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt)
  • SP – Nicolas Sinacola (Maine)
  • SP – Matt Mikulski (Fordham)
  • SP – Gavin Williams (East Carolina)
  • SP – Doug Nikhazy (Ole Miss)
  • RP – Landon Sims (Mississippi St.)
  • RP – Kevin Kopps (Arkansas)
  • C – Mattheu Nelson (Florida St.)
  • 1B – Chris Meyers (Toledo)
  • 2B – Jackson Glenn (Dallas Baptist)
  • 3B – Tyler Locklear (VCU)
  • SS – Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois)
  • OF – Quincy Hamilton (Wright St.)
  • OF – Colton Cowser (Sam Houston St.)
  • OF – Aaron Zavala (Oregon)
  • OF – Dylan Crews (LSU)
  • DH – Griffin Doersching (Northern Kentucky)
  • UT – Paul Skenes (Air Force)

Honorable Mentions / Just Missed List

  • SP – Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt)
  • SP – Sam Bachman (Miami Ohio)
  • 1B – Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame)
  • 1B – Dillan Shrum (Nevada)
  • 2B – Connor Norby (East Carolina)
  • 3B – Hunter Wells (Louisiana Tech)
  • OF – Mason McWhorter (Georgia Southern)
  • UTL – Zach Neto (Campbell)

Greg’s Full First Team

  • SP – Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt)
  • SP – Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt)
  • SP – Doug Nikhazy (Ole Miss)
  • SP – Matt Mikulski (Fordham)
  • SP – Gavin Williams (East Carolina)
  • RP – Landon Sims (Mississippi St.)
  • RP – Kevin Kopps (Arkansas)
  • C – Mattheu Nelson (Florida St.)
  • 1B – Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame)
  • 2B – Connor Norby (East Carolina)
  • 3B – Tyler Locklear (VCU)
  • SS – Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois)
  • OF – Quincy Hamilton (Wright St.)
  • OF – Colton Cowser (Sam Houston St.)
  • OF – Jack Rogers (Sam Houston St.)
  • OF – Jared Dupere (Northeastern)
  • DH/3B – Hunter Wells (Louisiana Tech)

Honorable Mentions / Just Missed List

  • SP – Nicholas Sinacola (Maine)
  • 1B – Griffin Doersching (Northern Kentucky)
  • 2B – Jackson Glenn (Dallas Baptist)
  • OF – Mason McWhorter (Georgia Southern)
  • OF – Dylan Crews (LSU)

Both recently joining the 6-4-3 Charts team, Greg worked in scouting and player development for the Seattle Mariners for more than 20 years while Luke has worked with Pitcher List, SB Nation and the Coe College baseball team as a data analyst and writer for the past four years.